Jun 2010 Financial News

Experts revise hurricane forecast. ‘Very active’ season predicted with 18 named storms

Jun 08, 2010

FORT COLLINS, Colorado (CMC) — Hurricane forecast experts at Colorado State University have increased their predictions and are now calling for a very active 2010 season in the Atlantic basin with 18 named storms.

The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Ocean, which began on June 1and will end on November 30, affects the Caribbean and the eastern and Gulf coasts of the United States of America.

The forecasters base their prediction on much warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and cooling tropical Pacific conditions that will likely transition into a weak La Niña by mid-season.

Of the 18 storms, the team of experts now anticipates 10 hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 30. Five are expected to develop into major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111mph or greater.

The scientists increased their forecast from April's prediction of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Long-term (1950-2000) averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.

"We have increased our forecast from early April, due to a combination of a transition from El Niño to current neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures," said William Gray, who is in his 27th year of forecasting at Colorado State.

"We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall," he added.

The team said there is a 65 per cent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean. The average for the last century is 42 per cent.

"The Caribbean looks to be very active in 2010, with overall tropical cyclone activity approaching levels experienced in 2004 and 2005," it said.

Lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach said, if this hurricane season occurs as predicted, it could have an impact on the clean-up of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.


Source:
Jamaica Observer
CMC
Tuesday June 08, 2010

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Experts-revise-hurricane-forecast_7686078