Jun 2016 Financial News

Brexit implications for HSF too

Jun 28, 2016

BREXIT and the turmoil it has caused in Europe has implications for the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF), officials said yesterday. Reactions continued to pour in on Britain’s stunning vote to exit the European Union, as the political fallout widened in the UK.

Outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron accepted the case for an early general election, while the future of Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn was seriously in doubt after two dozen of his MPs resigned in protest of his handling of the vote campaign.

The pound hit a 31-year low and the UK lost its triple-A credit rating. Locally, Brexit was on the lips of officials who attended the opening of Banking Week, which is being put on by the Bankers Association of Trinidad and Tobago. Yesterday, Finance Minister Colm Imbert declined to rule out an impact on the HSF. Instead, he said it was “too early to tell.” The HSF’s assets include US core domestic equity, non-US core international equity, US short duration fixed income, and US core domestic fixed income.

However, former finance minister Larry Howai argued there will be implications for the HSF.

“There will be immediate effects for us,” Howai said in a letter to the press.

“The first is the HSF which would have been impacted in the first hours after the vote.

The assets of the Fund are held in fixed income securities and equities, all of which would have been affected by the collapse of markets globally. This would have been compounded where assets were held in sterling or other non-US$ denominated assets.

The same holds true for the investments in which our foreign exchange reserves are held.” However, he said there could be a mixed effect.

“Some of the effects could have been positive where falling interest rate expectations could have positively impacted values of fixed income securities,” Howai said. “The good news is that any losses (if any) would only be paper losses unless we actually dip into the Funds.

These portfolios are well managed and held in good quality assets and any effect may be short term in nature but it needs to be monitored carefully and the overall investment strategy will need to be revisited to determine if there is need for any change in light of recent events and expectations for the future.” Addressing the opening of Banking Week, former Independent Senator Dr Rolph Balgobin said Brexit had sent shock waves through the global financial system.

“I went to sleep for a few hours and woke up to find that England had gone absolutely bananas,” the president of the Manufacturers Association said at an event at the Queen’s Park Oval.

“Today I marvel at what is happening in the UK, both the architect and victim of a set of changes which have already sent shock waves through Europe and capital markets everywhere.” At the same event, president of the Bankers Association, Darryl White, told reporters the turmoil would make US treasuries more appealing.

“We will see how that affects the international markets,” White said. “If one only looks at the US treasuries, which is the benchmark for measuring US debt, US treasuries have actually dropped and stayed pretty low.

Most of the time when you have those types of reactions, people go to stronger global currencies.

The US is a stronger global currency.

My guess is that if anything it might actually be more attractive to go into US treasuries.”

Source:
By Andre Bagoo
Newsday
Tuesday June 28, 2016

http://www.newsday.co.tt/news/0,229802.html